"Automation has been a thing for many many years and unemployment hasn't spiked beyond control."
Right, but what kind of automation are we talking about here? Factory jobs replaced by machines? Are we talking about cashiers replaced by self-checkout boxes?
Yes, automation has been around for several years, but in the large scheme of things, it is VERY new. 10-20 years for a country is nothing, a blip. We are basically babies in the digital age. Yes, we've been living through automation and digitization of many things and we've seen lost jobs and new jobs created.
My point is that we, as a civilization, will reach a point where we've been able to integrate AI into things like... say, a robot. Perhaps a house cleaning robot, or a robot that finds criminals... companies will realize that spending a million bucks on a machine makes more sense than creating a job that you have to pay someone for, give benefits to... replacing that human with something that doesn't need breaks? doesn't need to eat? you don't have to pay a wage?
AI and automation will reach a point where it makes so much more sense to have machines doing the work than humans. It will save corporations billions if not trillions in the long run. Do you really think those large corporations, the Amazons, Microsoft, Apple's of the world will make an "ethical" choice to hire humans when there exists a machine that can do the same job? They haven't shown us they care too much about human life to this point, so why would they start then?
I guess what I'm trying to do is have you peek at the worst case scenario. Perhaps you're wrong, and there aren't millions of jobs waiting for people laid off due to AI / automation. Say unemployment spikes up to 20% in the year 2035. What is the solution here? Would you support UBI if this were the case? Would you ask the government to step in or would you just assume it would all work itself out in the end?
This is an issue we've dealt with on very small scales, but when we get AI that blows what we have now out of the water, things will change rapidly and exponentially and once the genie is out of the bottle, we won't be able to put him back.
I'm not saying UBI is the be all end all solution, but I do think it is something developed countries should be considering if we get to a point where unemployment is getting out of control. I hope you prove me wrong here and I would much rather see people get jobs that are created even with AI / automation being prevalent, but who knows. I think having a sturdy backup plan is never a bad idea...