Author: Mikey <>     Reply to Message
Date: 4/29/2020 1:39:08 PM
Subject: RE: NYC covid prevalance

the problem isn't that we made a foolish mistake, it's that even after hindsight people are doubling up down and refusing to admit it.

i was worried in mid march, like everyone else. But by early April, started to be clearer. at this point, if you dont think the lockdowns are worse than covid youre being willfully ignorant.

and 'well, good thing we did it anyway for x y and z' is just leaning into sunk cost fallacy. rationalize away... meanwhile sweden took a more reasonable approach and avoided the worst on both ends (disease and mitigation cost).

that doesn't mean it's not a serious concern, but its not as serious as we thought. its ok to be wrong, less ok not to admit it when it's staring you in the face, and worst when you double down to avoid being honest and impose terrible costs on the people who already had it hardest.